Sizing math — Kelly as a formula, never an order

Kelly gives a growth-optimal fraction under assumed odds. It is violently sensitive to those assumptions, which is why the classroom studies it and never converts it into a share count.

What you will be able to do

After this lesson you can compute the Kelly fraction from an assumed win rate and odds, explain why it is fragile in a way that has a number attached, and say why over-betting costs far more than under-betting saves.

Inside this lesson

What the formula says
Turn the dial and watch it travel
Why nobody serious bets full Kelly
The asymmetry is the lesson
Why it never becomes a share count here

This lesson is on Scholar

Audit includes orientation and the two-rooms lesson. The rest of the path is paid course access — still education, still not advice.

Included on Scholar · $79/month tuition.