A return is not a promise

Backtests, paper blotters and median projections all share one vice: they are shaped like a future. This lesson takes them apart and shows what a number can honestly claim.

What you will be able to do

After this lesson you can state what a backtest, a paper blotter and a Monte Carlo percentile each actually describe, explain why an average return is not the return you compound at, and rewrite a promise-shaped sentence into one that only claims what the arithmetic supports.

Inside this lesson

Three things that dress up as tomorrow
Compounding is a multiplier of whatever you fed it
Why the average return is not your return
What you may say instead

This lesson is on Scholar

Audit includes orientation and the two-rooms lesson. The rest of the path is paid course access — still education, still not advice.

Included on Scholar · $79/month tuition.