Educational publication only. Not investment, tax, or legal advice. No fiduciary relationship. Hypothetical / paper results do not indicate future performance. Full disclaimer
This classroom is an educational publication, not advice. Study tools, labs, and paper results stay hypothetical. Read the disclaimer.
Phase 2 of 5
Weather and holes — before anyone hands you a tally.
Read risk, correlation and regimes before anyone hands you a score. Weather and holes, not tickets. Part of the 22-lesson GESH Learn investing course.
Read trending vs ranging and a macro backdrop without turning a label into a ticket.
Regimes are weather systems — trending, ranging, stretched. They are frames for reading a book, not calls on next quarter.
16 min
A correlation measured in calm is a sample, not a contract. In stress, many series rhyme — and the protection you measured is exactly the protection that leaves.
16 min
Use a toy fan and a Kelly glass without treating either as a promise or an order.
Volatility is the wiggle. Drawdown is the hole measured from a peak. They answer different questions, and using one where the other was meant is the most common error in the vocabulary.
17 min
Kelly gives a growth-optimal fraction under assumed odds. It is violently sensitive to those assumptions, which is why the classroom studies it and never converts it into a share count.
18 min
Backtests, paper blotters and median projections all share one vice: they are shaped like a future. This lesson takes them apart and shows what a number can honestly claim.
14 min